Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales in June Slow from Accelerated Spring Pace; Second Quarter Sales to Finish Higher Year Over Year, As Large Automakers Gain Share

      By: PrNewswirePublished: Jun 25, 2025
      • The new-vehicle sales pace in June is expected to finish near 15.3 million, up from last June's 15.0 million pace, but down from last month's 15.6 million level.
      • Sales volume in June is forecast to finish down 6.3% from last year, lower by 15.2% from last month.
      • Thanks in part to strong results in April and May, second-quarter new-vehicle sales will finish nearly 2% higher year over year, as the market slows after the spring surge.

      ATLANTA, June 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- June new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to show a market slowing from the spring tariff-induced sales surge. The SAAR, or seasonally adjusted annual rate, is expected to fall to a pace of 15.3 million, down from May's 15.6 million level and significantly behind March and April's 17.5 million average sales pace. Second-quarter new-vehicle sales in the U.S. are forecast to be higher year over year by 1.7%, thanks to healthy results early in the quarter.

      New-vehicle sales volume in June, the final month of Q2, is expected to decline more than 6% from last year and 15% from last month. However, June has only 24 selling days, two fewer than last year and three fewer than last month, so lower sales volumes are anticipated.   

      June 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast



      Sales Forecast1

      Market Share



      Segment

      Jun-25

      May-25

      Jun-24

      MOM%

      YOY%

      Jun-25

      May-25

      MOM



      Mid-Size Car

      60,000

      72,460

      71,890

      -17.2 %

      -16.5 %

      4.8 %

      4.9 %

      -0.1 %



      Compact Car

      95,000

      109,957

      98,590

      -13.6 %

      -3.6 %

      7.6 %

      7.5 %

      0.1 %



      Compact SUV/Crossover

      210,000

      246,312

      216,143

      -14.7 %

      -2.8 %

      16.8 %

      16.7 %

      0.1 %



      Full-Size Pickup Truck

      180,000

      215,511

      189,070

      -16.5 %

      -4.8 %

      14.4 %

      14.6 %

      -0.2 %



      Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

      205,000

      240,405

      211,083

      -14.7 %

      -2.9 %

      16.4 %

      16.3 %

      0.1 %



      Other Segments

      500,000

      589,165

      547,032

      -15.1 %

      -8.6 %

      40.0 %

      40.0 %

      0.0 %



      Grand Total

      1,250,000

      1,473,810

      1,333,808

      -15.2 %

      -6.3 %











      1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data



      "The sales forecast is showing a cooler market in June, as consumers face tighter inventory levels and reluctance on the part of most dealers to add big discounts," noted Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Much of the pull-ahead demand that fired up sales in April and May has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to be weaker in the coming months. Buyers are price-sensitive right now. As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer, prices are expected to trend higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months." 

      Q2 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

      Cox Automotive is forecasting Q2 2025 new-vehicle sales to climb year over year by 1.7%, as a result of a strong market in April and the first part of May. With sales volume forecast at 4.18 million, Q2 sales will also finish higher than Q1, when 3.92 million units were sold. However, with more selling days in Q2, the Q2 SAAR of 16.1 million is below the Q1 SAAR of 16.4 million, another sign of a slowing new-vehicle market. Sales in the first half of 2025 are forecast to finish above year-ago levels.

      With stronger-than-expected sales in the early part of Q2 now in the books, Cox Automotive is increasing its baseline forecast to 15.7 million, a slight increase from the forecast of 15.6 million established at the end of Q1. The new, full-year sales forecast of 15.7 million represents a slight decline from full-year results in 2024 and is down from Cox Automotive's initial 2025 forecast of 16.3 million.

      Q2 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast



      Q2 Sales Forecast1

      H1 Sales Forecast

      Market Share

      OEM

      Q2 2025

      Q1 2025

      Q2 2024

      QOQ %

      YOY%

      H1 2025

      H1 2024

      % Change

      H12025

      GM

      746,548

      690,339

      691,680

      8.1 %

      7.9 %

      1,436,887

      1,281,735

      12.1 %

      17.7 %

      Toyota

      674,502

      570,269

      616,123

      18.3 %

      9.5 %

      1,244,771

      1,179,653

      5.5 %

      15.3 %

      Ford

      610,422

      498,480

      532,466

      22.5 %

      14.6 %

      1,108,902

      1,037,281

      6.9 %

      13.7 %

      Hyundai

      474,449

      419,912

      438,602

      13.0 %

      8.2 %

      894,361

      817,805

      9.4 %

      11.0 %

      Honda

      389,246

      351,577

      356,457

      10.7 %

      9.2 %

      740,823

      690,281

      7.3 %

      9.1 %

      Stellantis

      300,473

      291,189

      344,993

      3.2 %

      -12.9 %

      591,662

      677,534

      -12.7 %

      7.3 %

      Nissan-Mitsu

      232,618

      298,722

      259,448

      -22.1 %

      -10.3 %

      531,340

      540,586

      -1.7 %

      6.5 %

      Subaru

      154,370

      166,957

      169,447

      -7.5 %

      -8.9 %

      321,327

      322,443

      -0.3 %

      4.0 %

      VW

      130,744

      152,399

      175,055

      -14.2 %

      -25.3 %

      283,143

      319,584

      -11.4 %

      3.5 %

      Tesla

      130,168

      128,100

      164,264

      1.6 %

      -20.8 %

      258,268

      304,451

      -15.2 %

      3.2 %

      Mazda

      94,924

      110,316

      102,383

      -14.0 %

      -7.3 %

      205,240

      202,486

      1.4 %

      2.5 %

      BMW

      94,612

      94,591

      97,135

      0.0 %

      -2.6 %

      189,203

      187,979

      0.7 %

      2.3 %

      Daimler

      79,120

      75,100

      95,596

      5.4 %

      -17.2 %

      154,220

      178,219

      -13.5 %

      1.9 %

      Geely Volvo

      34,003

      34,896

      31,206

      -2.6 %

      9.0 %

      68,899

      64,367

      7.0 %

      0.8 %

      Others

      76,571

      75,762

      76,388

      1.1 %

      0.2 %

      152,333

      152,166

      0.1 %

      1.9 %

      NATION

      4,188,766

      3,923,713

      4,120,037

      6.8 %

      1.7 %

      8,112,479

      7,892,203

      2.8 %





       1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data



      "The big winner in the first half of 2025 has to be General Motors," added Chesbrough. "Despite all the challenges, GM's sales are expected to finish above 1.4 million units, up more than 12% from last year. Double-digit growth across all GM brands fueled the success. Hyundai, too, had a strong first half and is expected to improve further this year."

      One trend emerging in 2025 is the strength of the largest automakers. The five biggest by volume – General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, Honda – are all expected to see notable market share growth this year, while smaller or more specialized brands or companies are losing share or, at best, treading water in this market.

      About Cox Automotive

      Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.  

       

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      SOURCE Cox Automotive

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